If you want to understand the coming chaos read this brilliant article

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ryan costa
Posts: 2249
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 10:31 pm

Re: If you want to understand the coming chaos read this brilliant article

Postby ryan costa » Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:45 am

Russia has a low population density and a lot of resources to blow through.
The population probably has a higher average intelligence than the USA.
They have seen all of the USA's nation building wars in the last 50 years fail, so they are probably smart enough to not repeat that.
that's money and resources that can be spent on something useful, or good, or intelligent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUd4jOszwd8


"shall we have peace" - Henry Charles Carey
Bill Call
Posts: 3312
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 1:10 pm

Re: If you want to understand the coming chaos read this brilliant article

Postby Bill Call » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:19 am

Your speaker raises some valid points regarding our recent wars. There was too much focus on nation building and to strong a desire to remold ancient societies in our image.

The world those wars helped create is dominated by authoritarian regimes that are on the march. Putin dreams of reestablishing the Tsarist empire, Xi dreams of rebuilding the Chinese empire, Erdogan in Turkey dreams of rebuilding the Ottoman empire, Iran dreams of reestablishing the Persian/Islamist empire. Dictators all across the world dream of accumulating billions of dollars in wealth and ruling forever. Those countries are less nation states than organized criminal gangs. Think of Al Capone as president. Think of them as the 21st century Axis alliance without the cartoon character villains. Whose support will they seek?

The new axis has a lot of advantages.

They know what they want. We don't.
They invest heavily in war research and military hardware. We invest in bureaucracy.
They have allies, we don't. Our so called allies spend virtually nothing on defense and are busy selling our adversaries all the tech money can buy.

Their biggest advantage? Third world dictators have discovered they don't need to care what the people think. Look to Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and others. They realize that if you keep the population in abject poverty, desperate for food and under constant surveillance the dictators can rule forever. All across the world the authoritarian regimes are picking sides. Are they going to pick the side that says, "Resign and have an election"?

Erdogan in Turkey is finally catching on to that reality. He is the guy that said "Democracy is like a street car. When you reach your destination you get off". He said that before the people of Turkey elected him. Officially he is an "ally".


ryan costa
Posts: 2249
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 10:31 pm

Re: If you want to understand the coming chaos read this brilliant article

Postby ryan costa » Sun Dec 05, 2021 10:36 pm

i appreciate your input. i wrote a whole essay regarding the issues you were addressing. then my browser crashed before I could post it. that might mean I should put more thought into it.


"shall we have peace" - Henry Charles Carey
ryan costa
Posts: 2249
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 10:31 pm

Re: If you want to understand the coming chaos read this brilliant article

Postby ryan costa » Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:30 am

These other countries generally have a better reputation on the chaos scale for the last 20 or 30 years.
They did not destroy Iraq and Libya or cause the 2007 financial crisis.
America freely broadcasts its own domestic problems, as the pundits jockey to blame their opposing numbers on whatever. the crime, the riots, the shitty schools, the shitty students, the urban decay, the rural decay, the opioid epidemics, the meth epidemics, the gangs, the jerry springer show guests.

Turkey is generally an ally with the U.S.
Iran is much more modern or tranquil than the U.S. likes to give them credit for.

Putin will remain popular in Russia as long as they remember the Yeltsin years. Russia is capitalist now: they have a lot of resources and underdeveloped industries. American companies can take part in building some of that up, or leave it all to other modern nations' companies. Russia has some form of limited democracy, and that is better than anything we've managed to install in viet nam, laos, cambodia, afghanistan, iraq, or libya.

China is simply evolving into a right wing capitalist nation with a Confucian cultural heritage. They have a limited and evolving form of democracy.
They are Communist in Name Only. The Anglo-Sino wars largely revolved around Britain fighting for its right to sell opium in China.
An American-CINO war would revolve around Americans getting upset that China makes it easier for them to go shopping.
America has 4 to 7 times more retail space per capita than most european countries. If you cut off China half the stores around you are gonna close. maybe they could be repurposed as methadone clinics or homeless shelters.

Democracies evolve slowly. so there is no reason to rush to install them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2RBKd37mSg

Contrary to Thomas Friedman, Democracy and Trade have never prevented war.

There is no need to fear a war with China. An Aircraft carrier and the big navy ships are obsolete in a war with a nation as modern as china. perhaps even Russia. The average smart phone can almost drive a car by recognizing visual information. a smart bomb or smart missile does not have to avoid causing car accidents, it just has to hit the big ships. an aircraft carrier is easier to recognize than a parking space, and only moves slightly faster than a parking space. America does not crank out hundreds of millions of smart phones a year. in the event of a conflict with China, the main job of an American Aircraft Carrier would be to get sunk or damaged enough to not function as an aircraft carrier. At which point the American leaders would talk themselves into launching nuclear missiles. There is no way to not launch one nuclear missile, so America and China would launch all of their nuclear missiles. Then you will be dead, your parents will be dead, your kids will be dead, and all your friends and neighbors will be dead. If there is no way to win, there is no reason to worry about losing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb9j2m-nl30

There is tension over Taiwan. From about 1990 to 2002 there may have been a way for the U.S. to lead negotiations through the U.N. for China and Taiwan to recognize each other as separate nations. not anymore. The U.S. does not have the economic clout it had then, and has lost most of its international credibility after destroying Iraq and Libya. and causing the 2007 financial crisis. and electing a gameshow host president. The only recourse is to let Russia lead the negotiations through the U.N., with an assist from Japan. Then China and Taiwan can recognize each other as independent countries. The incentive for this is that Russia and China can then make fun of us for destroying Iraq and Libya, and failing in Afghanistan. and the jerry springer show. and our daily news reports.

The Trump administration agreed with the Taliban in February of 2020 to mostly stop fighting in Afghanistan and then just leave. At this point it would have been incumbent upon the Afghani government to seek a U.N. mandate for further support. This would have required support and cooperation with Russia, China, and other nations near Afghanistan. That would require convincing them it would not be in their interests to live next to an Afghanistan dominated by the Taliban. Any continued U.S. presence there would have to be maintained under a U.N. Mandate, and not under any NATO auspices. well...it is too late for that now. what is strategery?

The right wing populists complain of "unfair trade deals". There is nothing unfair about the trade deals. America had the initiative in promoting and passing these trade deals. Americans re-elected most of the legislators and presidents who passed these trade deals. (the voters mostly just like watching sports on tv). The republicans had a tendency to give bigger tax breaks and loopholes to the folks who made the most money from the outsourcing. the democrats pass a few more band-aids for the communities racked by outsourcing. So, the trade deals might be bad, or stupid, but they are not unfair. an effective way to motivate Americans is to get them angry at something that is their own fault. It worked for Trump!


"shall we have peace" - Henry Charles Carey

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